Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an
isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for
tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible across the Ozarks
region. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid
Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic.
...MT/WY/Dakotas...
A strong upper trough currently over the northern Great Basin will
translate eastward today, with large scale forcing for ascent
overspreading much of the northern High Plains region. This will
aid cyclogenesis over eastern WY and focus a surface cold front from
south-central WY into northwest ND. Thunderstorms are expected to
form by mid-afternoon off the BigHorn mountains and build eastward
across southeast MT. While this environment will be post-frontal,
Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will
support a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
Most CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms will become more numerous
and intense as they spread into western SD this evening, maintaining
support of the ENH risk area.
...Ozarks...
A weak cut-off low continues to drift northeastward across OK this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau today,
where scattered thunderstorms are expected through the period.
Parameters are rather weak across this region, but there will be
some risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a tornado this
afternoon/evening if pockets of daytime heating can occur.
...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.
..Hart/Wendt.. 06/07/2026
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