Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High
Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico.
...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis place a wavy and diffuse cold front from
central Manitoba southwestward through central ND, western SD to a
low in the WY/NE/CO border intersection vicinity. A pair of weak
lows exist along this boundary as well, one over southwest SD and
the other across central ND. This cold front, as well as these
surface lows, will likely contribute to the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
Additionally, early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low
over southern Saskatchewan, with a shortwave trough rotating through
its base over southeast MT/eastern WY. This shortwave likely has an
associated belt of stronger flow, but no upper-air data was
available to confirm its magnitude. Eastward progression of this
shortwave will result in increased large-scale ascent across the
frontal zone this afternoon, augmenting the more localized/mesoscale
ascent attendant to the surface features. This increased ascent will
occur within a diurnally destabilizing airmass where steep mid-level
lapse rates atop low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely result in 1500
to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also
expected to increase throughout the afternoon amid strengthening
mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave.
The resulting environment will support supercells capable of all
hazards, with the primary hazard predominantly dictated by storm
mode. Given the presence of the front, a linear mode will likely
dominate, with large to isolated very large hail as the primary risk
early in the convective cycle transitioning to damaging gusts
thereafter. Strengthening surface southerlies will contribute to
some elongation of the low-level hodograph, mostly from
central/eastern SD into far southeast ND. This area is also the most
likely to produce more discrete cells within the warm sector. As a
result, there appears to be a relative increase in the overall
tornado risk within this corridor.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region
this afternoon/evening, both within an arc through the northern and
eastern periphery of the MCV currently over northeast NM and the
northwestern TX Panhandle and along the lee troughing from eastern
CO into southern NM and Far West TX. For storms along the lee
trough, weak shear will limit storm organization, but high cloud
bases and steep low-level lapse rates could result in occasionally
strong downbursts. For storms north and east of the MCV, isolated
damaging gusts are the primary risk, although some hail could occur
over western KS where mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper
than areas farther south.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/03/2026
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