Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southeast New Mexico.
...Synopsis...
The upper low will move into the Canadian Prairie today. A modest
mid-level jet will overspread North Dakota into northern South
Dakota. A cold front will move south and east through the Dakotas. A
surface high in the Great Lakes region will promote moisture
advection into the High Plains.
...Northern Plains...
A modest low-level jet (45 kt at KLNX) is promoting a small cluster
of convection along the Nebraska/South Dakota border early this
morning. The duration of this activity is not certain, but it is
possible that it could last until daybreak when the low-level jet is
forecast to weaken. At a minimum, cloud cover from this activity may
delay heating in some areas. Models still bring low 60s F dewpoints
into South Dakota by the afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be
strongest in North Dakota where the upper low will be. Modest ascent
will still occur into South Dakota along the surface trough/front.
40-50 kt of shear will promote organized supercells, at least
initially. There does appear to be a small corridor where a discrete
mode could be maintained longer where the shear vectors will be more
orthogonal the surface trough. There, very-large hail would be more
probable. Overall, a transition to a linear mode is expected to
occur within a couple of hours of initiation as the front moves
southeast. Severe winds would become more likely as this occurs. The
tornado threat will be greatest with the initial discrete storms.
The low-level jet does modestly increase during the evening when a
linear mode should dominate. A QLCS circulation or two is possible,
but the wind threat should be the main concern.
...Central into southern Plains...
Weak convectively generated MCVs are apparent in water vapor imagery
in the Southwest. As these move slowly eastward into this
afternoon, perhaps congealing, they will interact with a surface
trough/stalled boundary in the High Plains. Deep-layer winds will
otherwise be weak, but the MCV may locally enhance shear. Low to mid
60s F dewpoints will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg despite fairly
modest mid-level lapse rates. The strongest storms will be capable
of isolated large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur
which would locally increase the threat for strong/severe winds.
...Southwest Texas...
Early morning convection appears possible within the region. The
spatial extent/intensity of this activity will play a large role in
whether stronger convection can develop later in the afternoon/early
evening. Should cloud cover/outflow influence be minimal, strong
heating southwest of the region along with moist influx from the
southeast will promote thunderstorms within the Davis Mountains/Big
Bend. Deep-layer flow will only be modest, but isolated large hail
and severe gusts would be possible.
..Wendt/Moore.. 06/03/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TSrjrB
