Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for isolated very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) and
swaths of severe outflow gusts (potentially exceeding 80 mph) will
persist through early tonight across the Dakotas and far eastern
Montana. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with lingering
supercells this evening and embedded circulations within the larger
clusters.
...Northern Plains...
Thunderstorms have been growing upscale into the primary cluster
over southwest ND, with additional frontal convection into eastern
MT and another cluster moving off the lee trough in southwest SD.
Vertical shear and buoyancy remain favorable for supercells with
isolated very large hail, though the clear trend to the expected
cluster/linear mode suggests that severe outflow gusts of 60-85+ mph
will be the main threat across the western Dakotas through early
tonight. A few tornadoes are still possible late this evening with
lingering supercells from west central ND to northwest NE per the
00z BIS and LBF soundings, though the threat will transition more to
embedded circulations within line segments across SD/ND. The ND
cluster is expected to weaken late tonight across central/eastern
ND, while the SD cluster may persist longer in a strengthening warm
advection regime, though the severe threat will slowly diminish with
eastward extent as the convection becomes elevated.
...Eastern MO to KY/TN...
Multiple, remnant MCVs are moving eastward from eastern MO across KY
to NC. Prior convection has overturned much of NC, where the threat
for wind damage has diminished. There will still be a low-end wind
damage threat where the MCVs move along the northern gradient of
somewhat larger buoyancy from eastern MO to KY/TN. A brief tornado
may also occur in the short term with supercell structures in the
warm advection zone where low-level shear is slightly enhanced on
the southwest flank of the primary MCV moving across KY.
...West TX/southeast TX Panhandle in the short term...
Only isolated deep convection has formed as of this evening across
the Pecos Valley and near CDS. Lingering hot surface temperatures
and inverted-V profiles could still support isolated severe outflow
gusts through about 02-03z.
..Thompson.. 06/28/2026
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