Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Evolving clusters of storms may still pose a risk for producing
strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the south central Great
Plains tonight.
...01Z Update..
A weak lee surface cyclone centered across the northern Texas
Panhandle and remnant surface boundary, reinforced by convective
outflow and differential afternoon surface heating, appear likely to
provide the primary focus for strongest thunderstorm development
into the overnight hours. Forcing for ascent associated with
low-level convergence and warm advection to the east of the low has
supported an evolving cluster of storms now propagating
east-southeastward into western Oklahoma, in the presence of 20 kt
westerly deep-layer mean flow. Due to veering of wind fields with
height in lower to mid-levels, deep-layer shear is strong, and
further intensification still appears possible as the surface cold
pool continues to strengthen, and updraft inflow increasingly
emanates from a boundary layer over west central Oklahoma
characterized by seasonably high moisture content with sizable
potential instability.
Upstream, forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level
perturbation appears to be contributing to increasing thunderstorm
development across parts of southwestern Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle. This activity may continue to grow upscale this evening,
with stronger convective development perhaps becoming focused along
outflow trailing the preceding cluster by late this evening, while
developing southeastward.
Some risk for a couple of tornadoes continues, but the risk for
strong, damaging wind gusts will increasingly become the primary
potential severe hazard through mid to late evening.
Otherwise, though it is appearing more uncertain, the remnant
baroclinic zone to the east of the surface low could still become a
focus for another evolving cluster of storms later tonight, as it
remains quasi-stationary or shifts slowly northward across parts of
northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas.
..Kerr.. 06/26/2026
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