Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains today into tonight.
Scattered damaging winds should also occur with thunderstorms across
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.
...Southern Plains...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are occurring across western/southwest
KS into northwest OK this morning, aided by a 20-25 kt southerly
low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection. This convection
may tend to remain elevated for at least the next couple of hours,
as a surface front remains draped near the Red River vicinity.
However, there is substantial low-level moisture present across the
TX Panhandle into western OK along/south of the ongoing
thunderstorms (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints). Steep
mid-level lapse rates atop this moist airmass is supporting MUCAPE
up to 3000-4000 J/kg. Strongly veering and modestly strengthening
winds with height through mid/upper levels is fostering upwards of
40-50 kt of effective bulk shear per recent RAP forecast soundings
and latest mesoanalysis estimates. This activity will likely
continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail this morning so long
as the mode remains supercellular.
With time, mergers/outflow interactions should foster some
clustering/upscale growth into the afternoon. There is some
potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe/damaging winds
to spread southward this afternoon and evening across parts of the
TX Panhandle into western/central OK with one or more intense
clusters that form. Isolated significant gusts to 75-85 mph gusts
appear possible given an already very moist/unstable airmass that
will undergo additional destabilization with daytime heating.
Strongly considered increasing wind probabilities and introducing an
Enhanced Risk for this area. But, ongoing morning convection casts a
little too much uncertainty to upgrade with this outlook update.
...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorms ongoing across western NE this morning on the northern
periphery of the low-level jet and related moisture plume have
recently weakened. Still, this convection may continue to pose an
isolated severe hail/wind risk for as long as it can persist. But,
additional weakening is expected later this morning as it encounters
a less unstable airmass. Otherwise, westerly mid-level flow and weak
forcing will persist over the central High Plains today. Weak
low-level upslope flow and a small-scale mid-level perturbation
embedded within the westerly flow aloft should encourage at least
isolated convective development across southeast WY into eastern CO
by early/mid evening.
Model trends suggest that robust convective initiation may be
delayed until 00Z or perhaps even later (04-06Z). Still, a
conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist
across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any
thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given
strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Have maintained
the Enhanced Risk for large to very large hail, but lower confidence
exists for a swath of severe/damaging winds given the probable late
timing of convection and tendency for this activity to remain
discrete. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.
...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by
late morning/early afternoon along and ahead of the front. While
lapse rates aloft will remain poor, sufficient instability will
exist with daytime heating to support surface-based convection. A
generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal
forcing, with modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow and related shear
supporting thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds
appear to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads
eastward through the afternoon, with the greatest concentration
forecast across parts of southeast VA and eastern NC. A brief
tornado or two may also occur with embedded mesocirculations in the
line.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Given
sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this activity
may pose an isolated severe hail/wind risk, along with a tornado or
two. Modest instability should keep the overall severe risk fairly
isolated/marginal.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/23/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TT9v3C
