Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Supercells and multicell clusters will continue to produce
significant-severe wind/hail across the central High Plains this
evening. Severe gusts and widn damage may accompany storms near the
Mid-Atlantic coast through late evening. Tonight, isolated severe
storms may occur across the southern Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance toward the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard
while a pronounced mid-level impulse ejects into the
central/northern High Plains. At the surface, a trough will impinge
on the East Coast while ongoing/developing storms continue to
progress along a baroclinic boundary, from the Mid-MS Valley
northwestward along the High Plains. Strong shear and buoyancy in
both of these regimes will continue to foster severe potential into
the evening hours.
...Mid Atlantic into the Southeast...
A well defined QLCS is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic, with more
sporadic pulse-cellular/multicellular storms progressing over the
Southeast. The QLCS will move offshore over the next hour,
accompanied by a damaging gust threat. Across the Southeast,
multicellular storms supported by the remnants of daytime heating or
localized lift along MCVs appear to be on the wane. Nonetheless,
1000-2000 J/kg remnant MLCAPE will support localized wet downburst
potential with some of the stronger storms over the next couple of
hours. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with MCV storms
across the TN Valley.
...High Plains...
Supercells remain in progress across the central to northern High
Plains, where 2-3 inch in diameter hail and gusts well exceeding 75
mph have occurred. 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 8+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates, precede many of these supercells, so a severe wind/hail
threat will continue with these storms for at least a few more
hours. A tornado is also possible for supercells that remain inflow
dominant. There is some chance that supercells could grow upscale
into an MCS, which would traverse a surface boundary across the
southern High Plains into the Southern Plains. Confidence in this
scenario is quite low. However, should this evolution occur, severe
gusts would be possible.
...Southern Plains into the Middle MS Valley...
Thunderstorms are initiating along a surface boundary, draped from
the TX Panhandle into central MS. 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50
kts of effective bulk shear overspreads this boundary, which would
promote multicells and supercells with a severe wind/hail threat
wherever storms mature. Nonetheless, forcing along this boundary is
weak, so the severe threat should remain isolated through tonight.
..Squitieri.. 06/23/2026
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