Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.
...ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast...
A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into
northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the
lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening.
But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered
damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV
attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states
through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should
occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to
some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated
with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of
producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south
of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the
Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may
also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow
is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z
observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft,
which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this
afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening
mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of
the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell
clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as
they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the
strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a
sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level
shear may become locally enhanced.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest
low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant
threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly
widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at
least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may
occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE
Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level
moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should
overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to
show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but
trends will be monitored.
..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026
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