Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the central
Plains this evening into late tonight. Large hail, severe winds
(some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.
...Central Plains...
An intense supercell cluster over northwest KS is expected to grow
at least modestly upscale with time this evening, and spread
east-southeastward across parts of northern/central KS, while more
isolated supercells may evolve across southwest KS and move toward
south-central KS through at least dusk. MLCAPE of near/above 2000
J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to support
organized storms with large hail (potentially 2+ inches in diameter
with any sustained supercells), severe wind gusts (possibly 75+
mph), and some tornado potential, especially with storms that
persist into richer low-level moisture across central/eastern KS.
Storm evolution remains somewhat uncertain overnight into eastern KS
and western MO, but a storm cluster and possible MCS may continue
through the end of the period, with severe-wind potential, and some
hail and tornado threat with any embedded supercells.
Farther northeast, elevated supercells may continue to pose a threat
of hail and isolated strong to severe gusts from southeast NE into
northeast KS through dusk. See MCD 1215 for more information.
To the west, a cluster of storms with a history of measured severe
gusts is moving into parts of southwest SD and the NE Panhandle.
Increasing CINH with time and eastward extent should result in a
gradual weakening trend, though some severe threat will remain
possible into mid/late evening across the NE Sand Hills region. See
MCD 1218 for more information.
Some threat for isolated supercells may persist farther south into
northeast CO through dusk, with a threat of hail. Other remnant
high-based convection may pose a threat of localized severe gusts
through dusk across parts of western/central WY.
..Dean.. 06/21/2026
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