Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas
into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into
the northern Great Basin.
...20z Update MN/WI...
Severe potential remains evident this afternoon and evening across
the upper MS Valley. Despite modest buoyancy, anomalously strong
deep-layer flow and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
splitting supercell structures across parts of MN and WI. This will
support a risk for hail and damaging gusts with the strongest
storms. Have adjusted the 15% hail probabilities further north for
the latest radar trends. See MCD#1200 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#355 for additional details.
...NC/VA...
The circulation associated with remnants of former TC Arthur have
moved offshore and severe potential has decreased. Severe
probabilities were removed.
...Southeast...
A broad area of thunderstorms is ongoing along a diffuse frontal
zone from east TX across the Gulf Coast States. Occasional
downbursts remain possible with stronger multicell clusters through
this evening, given large buoyancy and the high PWAT air mass.
Vertical shear is minimal and broader storm organization is not
expected. Have adjusted the 5% wind probabilities slightly to better
capture ongoing storms. No other changes were made to the outlook.
See the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 06/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026/
...MN/WI...
A fast moving shortwave trough over ND will track southeastward into
the upper Midwest today. 12z model guidance is in general agreement
that a pocket of modest CAPE will develop this afternoon over
central MN in a region of broken clouds and rapidly cooling
mid-level temperatures. This will likely lead to scattered
thunderstorm development, with storms tracking into western WI
before weakening this evening. Forecast soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. Given the
strong large scale ascent, a few relatively low-topped supercells
are possible with large hail being the main risk. A small SLGT risk
has been added for this scenario.
...East TX into the Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today
across much of east TX and LA into southern MS/AL/GA and north FL.
Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and strong heating will lead to
MLCAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across much of this broad area.
This will lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms later today into
this evening. Steering flow and vertical shear are weak across the
region, suggesting slow-moving and rather disorganized convection.
Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of water-loaded
downdrafts and occasionally gusty/damaging winds.
...Eastern NC...
A remnant tropical circulation is moving across NC and will be
offshore by mid-afternoon. Until then, an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out in the stronger-sheared environment across the Outer
Banks region. Refer to MD #1197 for further details.
...KS/NE/CO/NM...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in a zone of
low-level warm advection over southwest NE and track into northern
KS. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear for rotating storms
could pose a risk of large hail in the strongest cores. Other more
widely scattered convection will develop southward into eastern
CO/western KS/northeast NM, where gusty/damaging wind gusts are
possible.
...NV...
A very deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over
much of northern NV/northeast CA, along with enough CAPE for
high-based thunderstorms. Strong mid/high-level winds and favorable
thermodynamic profiles could result in a few storms capable of
damaging wind gusts.
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