Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated brief tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible from far
southern Alabama into the parts of the Florida Panhandle and across
much of Georgia. Scattered damaging winds are likely this evening
into tonight over much of north-central Texas.
...From far southern AL across GA and into SC...
A line of thunderstorms currently extends north-south across central
GA ahead of the midlevel wave. The environment is very moist and 0-1
SRH is over 250 m2/s2 at the JGX radar. Minimal CIN due to the high
PWAT air mass should thus continue to support QLCS tornado potential
as the line of storms moves across GA, and possibly into SC later
tonight.
Farther southwest, robust thunderstorms have developed near Mobile
and will move eastward across far southern AL and the northern and
western FL Panhandle. A very moist and unstable air mass resides
here as well, and stronger westerly flow and shear around the
southern periphery of the upper system will continue to support a
narrow corridor of brief tornado or damaging wind potential.
For more information see mesoscale discussion 1191.
...Much of north-central Texas...
Hot conditions exist across the Abilene to San Angelo area this
evening, with little CIN. The 00Z MAF sounding shows a deep mixed
layer and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with a near 60 F dewpoint. Just east
of the low-level lapse rate plume, dewpoints are well into the 70s
F, with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE into central TX.
Storms are already beginning to form over west-central TX as a cold
front pushes south into the storm-ready air mass. Winds around 850
mb will also increase out of the southeast tonight, aiding unstable
inflow into a developing cluster of storms. Shear and steering
currents aloft are weak, but severe outflow is expected to affect
much of northwest into north-central TX later this evening into
tonight. A general southeastward propagation is most likely, into
the moist plume. Conditions appear favorable for damaging winds, and
localized significant wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Given such
high instability, some of the stronger storms may briefly produce
hail.
..Jewell.. 06/19/2026
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