Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered
storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into
western North Texas.
...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
The region will be influenced by lingering long-lived
overnight-upscale-transitioning linear segments that moved across
Kentucky/West Virginia, that will likely continue to pose a severe
risk early today, mainly in the form of damaging winds. This may be
even as updraft/storm intensities somewhat trend downward over the
mountains. Even if weakening occurs early today east of the
Appalachians spine, residual outflow/differential heating and
potential MCV influences should help focus
redevelopment/re-intensification into the Piedmont later today, with
additional development westward toward the Cumberland Plateau along
the residual convective boundary as well as the
east/southeastward-advancing front. Moderate diurnal destabilization
aside, organized severe potential will be aided by seasonally strong
winds through the low/mid-troposphere, even with a tendency for
low-level winds to weaken into this afternoon.
...Northeast States...
Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave
trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
a 90 kt mid-level speed max and cooling aloft moving across New York
and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop
into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the
region.
Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints
into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm
profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth.
However, ample mid-level cooling will still support sufficient
destabilization and the development of intensifying low-topped
storms into the afternoon. Pronounced deep-layer/low-level shear and
backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped
supercells. Cells should develop/further increase over northern New
York through midday/early afternoon and will move quickly east.
Damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and hail will all be
possible, although smaller hail may be more likely given the low EL
heights.
...Gulf Coast including parts of LA/MS/AL/GA/FL...
Already strong mid/low-level winds across southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, associated with the remnants of Arthur, will
further increase and spread east-northeastward across Alabama and
Florida Panhandle toward Georgia, as a weak surface low and
mid-level wave spread northeast regionally. The strong low-level
shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support organized bands of storms
with embedded stronger/rotating cells capable of a
northeastward-transitioning tornado risk today.
...Oklahoma/southern Kansas to western North Texas...
Isolated mostly elevated severe storms capable of hail will remain
possible early today across southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma
and possibly southwest Missouri. These storms could linger today and
also pose some damaging wind risk. Additional deep convection may
develop into late afternoon/early evening within a very unstable
environment across western Oklahoma into western North Texas near
the southward-shifting front and surface low/dryline across Texas,
with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/18/2026
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