Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF IOWA
AND OVER A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing hail remain possible from southern Kansas
into northwest Oklahoma this evening. Isolated severe hail or wind
will persist across the northern Plains and into Iowa by Wednesday
morning. Isolated severe storms may persist from Indiana into
western Ohio this evening.
...IN/OH/MI...
00Z DTX and ILN soundings show modest instability but favorable
shear profiles to sustain cellular storm mode this evening. However,
storms across this region are beginning to decrease in coverage and
intensity, though isolated strong to severe storms may persist with
marginal hail or brief tornado risk before the upper trough moves
out of the area and the air mass stabilizes.
...KS/OK/TX Panhandle...
A mixed boundary layer, increasing low-level jet and northwest flow
aloft is aiding a few cells over southwest KS into northwest OK.
Periodic large damaging hail remain possible, and a cell or two may
persist this evening, perhaps toward the eastern TX Panhandle as
moisture returns northwestward. However, the cooling boundary layer
will eventually result in decreasing coverage.
...From MT to IA...
Scattered storms exist from MT into ND, beneath cool temperatures
aloft with the developing upper trough. Locally severe gusts may
occur with any of this activity as a relatively dry/mixed sub cloud
layer exists on 00Z soundings.
Later tonight, as the low-level jet increases into the central
Plains, a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will reach eastern NE into
IA, and may fuel cells initially producing hail following a possible
MCS.
..Jewell.. 06/17/2026
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