Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity may impact the higher terrain of
northeastern New Mexico into adjacent high plains late this
afternoon into evening, accompanied by at least some potential for
severe hail and wind.
...Discussion...
Higher latitude blocking appears likely to persist with little
general change through this period. This regime will maintain a
broad area of cyclonic flow with anomalously low heights, which may
deepen further to the south of the central and eastern Canadian/U.S.
border vicinity, as a significant short wave trough digs across the
Dakotas through portions of the Upper Midwest by 12Z Tuesday.
Models indicate that this is likely to be accompanied by a more
notable southward surge of cooler/drier air, in the wake of a
stalling, weakening preceding cold front reaching the southern
Atlantic/Gulf Coast vicinity. With higher boundary-layer moisture
content and stronger potential instability largely becoming confined
to the south of the westerlies, the potential for organized severe
thunderstorm development appears seasonably low today through
tonight.
...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
Beneath a northwesterly mid-level regime, which may modestly
strengthen to the southwest of the digging short wave trough by this
late afternoon, models indicate that moistening on southerly
low-level flow may contribute to modest destabilization across the
eastern/southeastern slopes of the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains into Raton Mesa vicinity. Perhaps aided by forcing for
ascent accompanying a subtle digging short wave perturbation, it
appears possible that thunderstorm activity, initiating with
destabilization across the higher terrain, could consolidate into a
small organizing cluster while propagating southeastward into the
adjacent high plains. Forecast soundings across this region suggest
that thermodynamic profiles may become potentially conducive to the
development of large hail and strong to severe wind gusts into mid
to late evening.
..Kerr/Weinman.. 06/15/2026
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