Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with minimal changes required
to the existing probability lines based on ongoing convective trends
and recent model guidance. The primary outlook amendment was the
introduction of 5% hail probabilities across portions of eastern
Nebraska.
...Nebraska...
12z ensemble guidance hinted at thunderstorm development across
eastern NE during the 09-12 UTC period as a weak low-level cold
front impinges on a plume of northward returning moisture. More
recent runs of the RAP/RRFS/HRRR continue to show this potential and
depict a fairly robust thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE
values upwards of 4000 J/kg. 18 UTC RAOBS from the southern High
Plains and Rockies sampled steep mid-level lapse rates that will
advect eastward over the next 18 hours, and recent model solutions
appear to be capturing surface moisture return well. These trends
lend sufficient confidence to introduce a targeted hail risk area.
...Mississippi/Alabama...
5% wind probabilities were removed across northern MS/AL based on
recent radar trends, which depict the outflow boundary of a decaying
MCS rapidly progressing south and undercutting developing
convection. Strong buoyancy immediately downstream may support some
localized damaging wind threat through the afternoon, but latest
model guidance largely shows diminishing convective activity as the
outflow surges south.
..Moore.. 06/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/
...Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening...
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress
east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves
eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the
cool side of the front. Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap
the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay
northward into eastern NY. Strong surface heating is ongoing from
the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from
northeast PA into central NY. The net result will be moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep
low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell
clusters with occasional wind damage. The weak forcing for ascent
suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be
possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.
...Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture
northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front
begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow
into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat. Some
upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow
gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward
southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a
nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture
transport.
...Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday...
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture,
elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern
KS/western MO. This area will be near the east edge of the steep
midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible.
There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or
two with isolated damaging gusts. Farther north into eastern NE
(very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for
elevated storms with some hail. This area will be re-evaluated this
afternoon in the 20z update.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TT1PC1
