Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...MID ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
hail and severe gusts will also be possible across parts of the
south-central High Plains.
...Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
across Quebec later today, with weak midlevel height falls forecast
to extend south of this shortwave into parts of the Appalachians,
Northeast, and Mid Atlantic. The strongest deep-layer flow will
remain north of the international border, but modest effective shear
(generally 20-30 kt) will overlap relatively strong heating and
modest buoyancy across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
Scattered outflow-driven clusters may develop with time and move
eastward, with an attendant threat of damaging wind and perhaps
isolated hail.
Deep-layer flow/shear will be even weaker into parts of the southern
Mid Atlantic/Carolinas vicinity. However, very strong heating of a
moist airmass will support potential for scattered thunderstorms
with downburst potential, and eventual evolution into loosely
organized clusters capable of damaging outflow winds from afternoon
into at least the early evening.
...South-central High Plains vicinity...
Moist southerly low-level flow beneath steepening midlevel lapse
rates will result in robust destabilization from the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the adjacent south-central High Plains, with MLCAPE
increasing to near/above 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Modest
westerly mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 30-35
kt, conditionally supportive of organized convection. Large-scale
ascent will remain subtle, but eventual storms may develop by late
afternoon near the higher terrain, and spread east-southeastward
with time.
Initial storms could evolve into isolated supercells, with a threat
of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Consolidating outflow and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet
will support some upscale growth during the evening, with an
attendant severe-wind threat expected to spread across parts of the
south-central High Plains.
Farther south, more isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible across parts of central/eastern NM into Far West TX, with a
threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts.
...Upper Midwest...
Relatively low-topped convection may develop late this afternoon
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, as low-level lapse rates steepen
beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft. Robust
west-northwesterly flow aloft will conditionally favor some storm
organization, if sufficient buoyancy can develop. However, most
guidance depicts MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg, with an
inconsistent signal for where the deepest convection might develop.
Some threat for marginal hail and/or locally damaging wind could
evolve across some part of this region, and probabilities may be
needed if confidence increases regarding sufficient destabilization
and storm coverage.
...Parts of NE into western IA...
Elevated convection may develop late in the period from parts of NE
into western IA, within a warm-advection regime to the north of a
warm front. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of
elevated moistening/destabilization (which may be affected by MCS
development to the south across KS) and coverage of storms prior to
the end of the forecast period. Effective shear will be sufficient
for at least modest storm organization and an isolated hail threat,
if sufficient destabilization can occur. The aforementioned
uncertainties and likely very late timing of any severe threat
preclude the addition of hail probabilities at this time.
...Parts of OK/north TX...
In the wake of morning convection, robust redevelopment cannot be
ruled out across parts of OK/north TX, near a outflow-influenced
surface boundary. Guidance varies substantially regarding the
coverage/location of storms through mid morning, resulting in
considerable uncertainty. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest
deep-layer shear could result in localized hail/wind potential, but
confidence in boundary placement and diurnal storm coverage is too
low for probabilities at this time.
..Dean/Weinman.. 06/12/2026
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