Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.
...Midwest/Missouri Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley...
With a broad upper trough centered near/east of the northern CONUS
and Canadian Rockies, its lead portion will shift northeastward over
the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity today, with more limited
forcing for ascent and height falls farther south, until the
late-night arrival of a secondary portion of this trough out of the
northern Rockies and north-central High Plains. The primary synoptic
low/surface triple point will shift from northern Minnesota
north-northeastward into Canada. A moist environment will be in
place to the east of an eastward-advancing cold front, with
north-northeastward air mass recovery in the wake of overnight/early
morning storms (MCS) across the eastern Dakotas and
Minnesota/Wisconsin.
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in the predawn hours across
eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas into northwest Missouri and
western Iowa. This development is driven by a strong southwesterly
low-level jet and ample elevated moisture transport. For additional
short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1063. This development
could further increase today and shift east-northeastward across
Iowa/northern Missouri and eventually northwest Illinois today,
complexifying the forecast scenario. These storms could pose a
severe-storm risk within this corridor relatively early today, with
subsequent development expected by late afternoon near the cold
front spanning Minnesota into east-central Iowa, northern Missouri
and eastern Kansas. The early day storms, pending how extensive they
are, could spatially influence via outflow/cloud debris a preferred
zone for redevelopment near the Iowa/Missouri border vicinity toward
west-central/northwest Illinois. Meanwhile, farther north, in closer
proximity to the large-scale height falls, another preferred zone of
severe-storm development could focus across northern/eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin.
Deep-layer shear will be strengthening across these regions and will
broadly support initial supercells capable of large hail, with very
large hailstones possible with initial development near the cold
front late this afternoon and early evening. A predominant large
hail risk is also expected late tonight with anticipated mostly
elevated development across central/eastern Nebraska and northeast
Kansas, attributable to the approaching upstream system and an
re-intensifying low-level jet and warm/moist advection. Large hail
aside, tornadoes will be possible regionally late this afternoon and
evening, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). The early day storms
could ultimately organize and pose a damaging wind threat, and more
broadly so this evening as storms trend upscale near/east of the
cold front, potentially leading to a multi-round severe potential in
some areas today and tonight.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F.
While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and
more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon
as the boundary layer destabilizes. This development will be further
influenced by one or more weak eastward-moving MCVs over the upper
Ohio River Valley this morning. Damaging winds will be the primary
hazard regionally.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/10/2026
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