Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northern Rockies will remain roughly in place
during the period. Moderate mid-level flow will extend into the
central Rockies. Rich moisture will be present from the Ozarks into
the Mid-South/Southeast.
...Colorado into western Nebraska and western Kansas...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected to persist across the central
Rockies along the southeastern flank of the upper low. This flow
will gradually diminish into southwest Kansas. With a surface low
developing in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa, moist upslope flow
will occur within the Front Range. Storms will initially develop
within the higher terrain and progress east. Storms near the surface
low will develop by late afternoon. Initial supercells can be
expected with a large to very-large hail risk. Hail around 2 inches
is more probable in northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska where
upper-level flow will be stronger. A tornado or two will also be
possible with initial discrete storms given the backed surface winds
east of the Front Range. With time, upscale growth of activity can
be expected, particularly in Kansas where strong heating will
promote larger temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level
lapse rates. Where clustering can occur, a greater severe wind
threat will develop. Given the somewhat narrow corridor of moderate
to strong buoyancy and enough deep-layer shear that may limit
duration of linear organization, confidence is low in placement of
greater wind probabilities.
...Mid-South...
Convection that is currently ongoing in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri is expected to track south and east with time. Ahead of
this activity, a reservoir of 70+ F dewpoints will exist across the
Mid-South into parts of the Southeast. Depending on the timing of
the convection, some strengthening of this activity can be expected
into the afternoon. Mid-level flow across the region will not be
overly strong, but around 30 kt of effective shear appears
reasonable. Wind probabilities were increased within the Mid-South
to account for the anticipated MCS. There still remains some
question over the timing/placement of convection early this morning.
Adjustments to the Slight risk may be needed depending on
observational trends.
...Arkansas...
Model trends show potential for convection to develop along outflow
and move into strong/extreme buoyancy in Arkansas. As in the
Mid-South, timing of when this occur will play a role in the
intensity of the activity, especially given the weaker shear with
southwestward extent. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are
possible with the strongest activity.
...Northern Plains...
Stronger mid-level flow around the upper low will be present in this
region. Moisture/buoyancy will be more limited, however. Cold
temperatures aloft will promote an isolated hail risk with storms
that develop in the surface trough.
..Wendt/Moore.. 06/01/2026
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