Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the
central High Plains, with severe wind gusts being the primary
hazard. Other severe thunderstorms are still possible across the
Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as broader parts of the central
Plains to middle Missouri Valley.
...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Between a broad large-scale trough over the West and an expansive
upper ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS, a belt of enhanced
midlevel southwesterly flow is yielding around 40-50 kt of effective
shear from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. Here,
middle/upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates (sampled by 00Z observed soundings) are contributing to
moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. Despite gradual nocturnal
boundary-layer cooling, this buoyancy and deep-layer shear will
continue to promote the development of loosely organized convective
clusters and supercell structures spreading northeastward overnight.
The primary concern with this activity will be damaging/severe wind
gusts (some upwards of 75 mph) and large hail.
...Northeast...
A band of thunderstorms tracking southeastward across southern
Ontario could spread into parts of NY tonight, and given an
established cold pool, damaging winds will be possible. However,
surface observations and the 00Z ALB sounding suggest lingering
low-level static stability in the wake of earlier convection may
limit the overall severe risk.
..Weinman.. 07/01/2026
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