Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.
...Synopsis...
An 80-90 kt upper-level jet streak located across the northern
Rockies this evening will progress southeast into the central Plains
on Friday, contributing to amplification of a short-wave trough over
the same general area. That disturbance is then expected to weaken
Friday night as it moves into an increasingly confluent, mid-level
flow regime in place across the lower OH and TN Valleys. Elsewhere,
a mid/upper-level low over Sonora into Chihuahua, Mexico at the
start of the period is forecast to evolve into a weakening, open
wave while accelerating east through TX into the lower-MS Valley.
At the surface, a cold front associated with the northern-stream,
short-wave trough will progress south through the central into
southern High Plains on Friday with the boundary extending from the
southern TX Panhandle through n-central OK and southeast KS into
central MO by mid/late afternoon. A diffuse dryline or pre-frontal
trough will extend from southwest TX into the southeast TX
Panhandle, where it will link with the cold front.
Elsewhere, a cold front currently advancing south through the
Carolinas and GA is expected continue its slow, southward movement
into the northern FL Peninsula by afternoon. However, the western
extension of the front initially over the northwest Gulf is forecast
to weaken or lift north as a warm front into TX and LA on Friday,
allowing a moist, unstable air mass to those areas. The front is
expected to move onto the central and northeast Gulf Coast Friday
night as the low-level mass field responds to the short-wave trough
moving into the TN Valley.
...Oklahoma and north Texas into the Ozarks...
Modest, boundary-layer moistening is anticipated on Friday ahead of
the cold front with dewpoints increasing into the low/mid 50s. That
process will occur beneath the eastern extension of a steep,
mid-level lapse rate (EML) plume, supporting MLCAPE up to 1000-1500
J/kg from OK into southeast KS. Greater cloud cover and the
potential for early-day showers and storms are expected to limit the
destabilization process farther northeast along the front into the
Ozarks.
Increased height falls/forcing for ascent attending the migratory
short-wave trough coupled with convergence along the cold front are
expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by early
afternoon across portions of northern into central MO with
subsequent southwestward development along the boundary across
southeast KS into northern OK by mid/late afternoon.
Isolated occurrences of damaging wind and hail are possible along
and ahead of the MO segment of the front, where 40-45 kt of
effective bulk shear will coincide with MLCAPE of generally less
than 1000 J/kg. Across the level 2/Slight Risk area, comparatively
steeper lapse rates and resultant greater instability are expected
to offer a higher probability of supercell storm modes with the
initial hazard being large hail up to 2" in diameter. A deeper,
well-mixed boundary with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads is
expected to limit tornado potential, especially given modest
low-level shear. The models do hint at some increase in low-level
shear toward 00z across northeast Ok into southeast KS, where some
tornado risk could evolve. Otherwise, there is a consistent signal
across a number of convection-allowing models that the initial
storms will grow upscale into a forward-propagating QLCS that tracks
south through central and southern OK into at least north TX Friday
evening into Friday night. A transition to more of a damaging wind
threat is expected with that storm-mode evolution.
...East Texas to north Florida...
Late-evening water vapor imagery indicates a vorticity lobe pivoting
through the southeastern periphery of the northern Mexico upper low.
That disturbance is expected to progress into south-central TX
Friday morning, with a downstream belt of low-level warm advection
fostering scattered storms from late morning through the afternoon
from the upper TX coast to north FL. Additional storms may also
develop from the vicinity of the front south along the east-coast
sea breeze in the northeast FL Peninsula.
Much of the thunderstorm activity from the upper TX coast into
southern parts of LA, MS, and AL is likely to be slightly elevated
to the north of the stalled front off the coast. RAP and NAM-based
forecast soundings indicate the presence of a moist environment with
MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, mid-level lapse rates are
expected to be weak, which may tend to limit updraft strength and
storm organization, despite the presence of 40-50 kt effective bulk
shear. As such, a level 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained with the
expectation of isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
storms closer to the coast, which could become rooted in a moist and
modestly sheared boundary layer.
Farther to the east across north FL, afternoon storms are expected
to be surface-based in the vicinity of the front and east-coast sea
breeze. Model soundings depict a very moist environment with tall,
relatively skinny CAPE profiles with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The
presence of 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will be more than
sufficient to support some supercell structures capable of hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.
An additional round of mainly elevated thunderstorms appears
possible Friday night across portions of the lower-MS Valley with an
attendant risk for isolated, large hail and/or locally strong wind
gusts.
...South-central Texas...
Forcing for ascent associated with the lead vorticity maximum
mentioned in the previous section may contribute to the development
of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from the mid/lower Rio
Grande Valley into south-central TX from late morning into
afternoon. However, relatively strong capping evident in RAP-based
soundings cast uncertainty on eventual storm coverage, and as such,
a level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained. The overall environment
will support supercell storm modes with an attendant risk for large
to very large hail and locally strong wind gusts, given storm
initiation and sustenance.
..Mead/Halbert.. 05/08/2026
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