Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a brief
tornado are possible through the mid afternoon across the Florida
Panhandle into north Florida and far southern Georgia. Isolated
strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas,
as well as south-central Texas.
...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning
satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to
east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.
...Carolinas...
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential).
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.
...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/07/2026
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