Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this evening from north
Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible.
...Discussion...
Two areas of thunderstorm development are noted this evening: one
near the cold front extending across northwestern Arkansas and
another southward into north Texas near the cold front interface
with the dryline in central Texas. These two areas will be the
targets of interest for severe storm development this evening.
...Arkansas...
A cluster of elevated cells have developed in the vicinity of the
cold front in northwestern Arkansas. These have been slow to mature,
likely owning to remaining surface inhibition observed from NSSL
LIFT soundings from central Arkansas. This is also observed in
surface objective analysis, with moderate to strong CAPE in place
across much of central/southern Arkansas. Hi-res guidance suggests
that additional development will be likely through the evening. The
shear profiles across the region are supportive of supercells, given
strong deep layer shear at 65+ kts. If these cells can become
surface based through time, the tornado risk will increase. Surface
objective analysis indicates STP around 3-4 across southwestern
Arkansas into central Arkansas. Through time, additional development
along the front will become more linear and support an increase in
damaging wind potential.
...North-Central and Northeastern Texas/Southwestern Texas...
Thunderstorms have developed across the north side of the Dallas
metro this evening near the interface of the dryline with surface
boundaries and the cold front. Conditionally, if supercells develop
across this region potential for large hail will be possible.
Guidance also suggests convective development will be possible near
the Mexico border in far southwestern Texas. A conditional risk for
large to very large hail will extend into this region as well this
evening.
..Thornton.. 05/06/2026
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