Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible from eastern Kansas into the
portions of the Ohio Valley this evening into tonight. A
conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail
extends into portions of southern Plains through the remainder of
the evening.
...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys....
Widely scattered, strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening
along and ahead of a progressive cold front from southern lower MI
into northern IL and far southeast IA with visible satellite
indicating additional storm attempts into portions of northern MO. A
separate area of thunderstorms is ongoing within the open warm
sector east of St. Louis where hail up two inches in diameter has
been reported. In the absence of more substantial boundary-layer
moisture content, 00z observed soundings revealed the presence of
steep low/mid-level lapse rates are largely contributing to MLCAPE
of around 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, the accompanying kinematic
environment features a vertically veering wind profile with around
40 kt of effective bulk shear magnitudes and modestly strong
low-level shear (effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2).
Current thinking is that ongoing storms will remain capable of
isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
for the next few hours as increasing moisture content along a
nocturnal low-level jet offsets cooling in the boundary layer. The
threat should tend to diminish overnight as the boundary layer
gradually stabilizes.
For additional information on near-term details, see MCDs 640 and
641.
...Eastern Kansas into western Missouri...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have persisted this
evening across portions of western into central KS, aided by a weak
mid-level impulse moving through the central High Plains. A number
of high-resolution models suggest that activity will intensify later
this evening into tonight as it drifts east of the I-35 corridor and
encounters an increasingly unstable air mass in place across eastern
KS into western MO. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance
moisture transport into the growing complex of storms with large
hail being the primary hazard initially. With time, the models
suggest upscale growth into one or more forward-propagating clusters
with an increased risk for damaging wind gusts.
..Mead.. 05/05/2026
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