Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible this evening from eastern Kansas
into western Missouri.
...KS/MO...
Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft extends from the Four
Corners region into the Midwest today. Water vapor imagery suggests
several weak shortwave troughs embedded in the flow to aid in
large-scale ascent and the potential for thunderstorm development
later today. Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over eastern
KS/western MO. These storms will reinforce a surface boundary
across southeast KS/southwest MO. The boundary will lift northward
this afternoon with the potential for isolated thunderstorms along
and south of it. Very warm and humid conditions will prevail across
southeast KS/southern MO with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, along
with steep low and mid-level lapse rates.
While these early storms will pose an isolated severe threat, more
organized convection is forecast to form by early evening over
eastern KS and track along the boundary into MO. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient vertical shear to support supercells and bowing
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds, or even a
tornado. A small area of SLGT risk has been added to address this
scenario.
...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail will be possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of
AR, and southwest TX. Isolated occurrences of large hail are also
possible today from parts of the Dakotas into NE/IA.
..Hart/Kerr.. 05/31/2026
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