Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will continue this evening and parts
of the overnight, mainly within the central Plains.
...Synopsis...
An arcing zone of convection is ongoing across parts of Nebraska
into central Kansas. The strongest forcing for ascent will be
present in Nebraska as the shortwave trough pivots north through the
evening. This activity will still be capable of large hail, severe
winds, and a couple of tornadoes as the low-level jet modestly
strengthens into the evening. Additional storms will continue in
central Kansas. The 00Z observed TOP sounding showed steep mid-level
lapse rates, but some capping at low levels. While activity will
tend to become elevated into the evening, strong to severe/damaging
winds will remain possible farther east. Large hail potential will
be somewhat mitigated be less favorable storm modes. Within the
southern Plains, an isolated storm is possible on the dryline in the
next couple of hours, but confidence in this scenario is low as
forcing for ascent is weak and low-level stability will increase
with time.
..Wendt.. 05/31/2026
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