Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening over western Idaho and east of the Cascades in Washington
and Oregon, capable of damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a
tornado.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 05/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026/
...WA/OR/ID...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over central CA, with
a strong shortwave trough rotating around the low over central NV.
This feature is forecast to move into ID/OR later today, with an
associated 40-50 knot mid level jet affecting the area. Strong
heating, dewpoints in the upper 40s-lower 50s, and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will lead to moderate CAPE values over much of
western ID into central WA/OR, setting the stage for afternoon
thunderstorms. Activity is expected to first develop across
southwest ID/southern OR, where sufficient vertical shear would
support supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Morning CAM guidance suggests activity will organize into
multiple clusters by evening, tracking northwestward across the
Columbia Basin into western/central WA. These storms would continue
to pose a damaging wind threat.
...CO...
Strong heating and sufficient low-level moisture will likely result
in widely scattered thunderstorms in the foothills of the Front
Range this afternoon. The strongest cells could produce hail.
...KS...
A remnant weak vorticity max is tracking northward near the OK/KS
border. Southeasterly low-level winds to the north of the vort max
may result in sufficient shear for weak rotation in a few storms
later today. While a brief spin-up over north-central KS cannot be
ruled out, the overall threat appears too weak for outlook
probabilities today.
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