Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor
across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid
to late evening before diminishing.
...01Z Update...
...Mid Missouri Valley...
Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern
Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for
ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak
northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return
has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in
the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this
appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.
The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming
aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within
the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing
convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed
somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
low-level jet.
...Southern Appalachians...
As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex
migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the
southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South
Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm
development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist
boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew
points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential
near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be
out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable
air.
..Kerr.. 05/25/2026
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