Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated
severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and
the central High Plains.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.
...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.
...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.
...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.
...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/23/2026
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