Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
wind gusts will continue across parts of the central and southern
High Plains evening. A tornado may also occur in the central High
Plains.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
extending southward from the northern High Plains into the central
Rockies, with another smaller-scale trough located in the central
High Plains. At the surface, a low is located over southeast
Colorado with a trough extending southward into eastern New Mexico.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast Colorado. A
severe line segment is also ongoing from far southwest Kansas
south-southwestward into the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. These
storms are located along and near an axis of moderate instability,
where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Moderate
deep-layer shear is analyzed along the axis of instability. The
Goodland WSR-88D VWP has 0-6km shear near 50 knots, which will
support a threat for supercells this evening. The stronger storms
will be capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind
gusts...see MCDs 821 and 819.
Further south into the southern High Plains, two areas of scattered
strong thunderstorms are ongoing. The first is west of Lubbock from
far eastern New Mexico into west Texas. The second is in the western
Texas Hill Country. The storms are located along an axis of moderate
instability. Along this axis, deep-layer shear appears sufficient
for an isolated severe threat early this evening.
..Broyles.. 05/22/2026
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