Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible
with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may
also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains largely on track. Only minor adjustment to the
wind probabilities were made based on current observations and
recent guidance.
..Wendt.. 05/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026/
...WV to Southern New England...
A broad upper ridge is present today over the southeastern U.S.,
with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending from the
OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Visible satellite imagery
shows a zone of relatively clear skies from KY/WV into southeast
PA/NJ and southern New England. Strong heating in this corridor
will lead to moderate CAPE by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected, with steep low-level lapse rates and
sufficient westerly flow above the boundary-layer supporting a risk
of damaging wind gusts and some hail in the strongest
cores/clusters.
...Southwest TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a southern stream shortwave trough moving
into northwest Mexico, with large scale ascent approaching west TX.
Considerable cloud cover will persist in this region today, limiting
heating/destabilization. Easterly low-level upslope flow will aid
in the development of afternoon thunderstorms over the Davis
mountains, with storms spreading slowly eastward through the
evening. A few severe storms are possible, capable of large hail
and gusty/damaging winds.
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