Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight especially across Kansas
into far eastern Nebraska and Iowa, northwest Missouri and southern
Minnesota. This includes an increasing evening-time potential for
damaging winds aside from continued tornado and large hail risks
regionally.
...Central/southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
General regional trends will be for ongoing storms to continue to
grow upscale with increasing damaging wind potential this evening.
However, tornado potential (including a few strong) will continue
with embedded/semi-discrete supercells this evening, including near
the southern Minnesota warm frontal vicinity, and farther
south-southwest across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, and perhaps with southern
peripheral development near the dryline across southern Kansas.
Scenario is supported by a moist/unstable air mass, along with
dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly winds in the lowest
2-3 km AGL, a trend already noted in regional WSR-88D VWP data as
supplemental to 00z observed soundings from Omaha/Topeka/Norman and
Springfield, Missouri.
..Guyer.. 05/18/2026
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