Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO KANSAS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast
Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early
evening.
...KS to WI...
A progressive shortwave trough is evident on morning water vapor
imagery over MN. This feature will track across the Great Lakes
region through the forecast period, with the associated surface cold
front sagging into parts of the upper MS Valley. The air mass ahead
of the front from WI into IL/MO/KS is initially quite dry with
dewpoints only in the 30s/40s. However, strong southwesterly
low-level winds will lead to slow moistening/destabilization of the
pre-frontal air mass with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE around 500
J/kg expected by late afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be sparse and high-based. However, a few strong/severe storms may
form - capable of hail and gusty winds into early evening.
...FL...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass remains in place over the
FL Peninsula today. A well-defined shortwave trough over southern
AL will track eastward today, resulting in sufficient large scale
forcing for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are
veered, suggesting the most intense cells will be in vicinity of the
east-coast sea-breeze. A few organized multicell or supercell
storms are possible, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/12/2026
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