Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, a midlevel trough will continue eastward from the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley tonight. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are evolving
eastward across northern ND -- in the vicinity of an eastward-moving
surface trough/front. Despite limited buoyancy, a deeply mixed
boundary layer could favor a couple strong wind gusts before the
boundary layer nocturnally cools/stabilizes. See MCD #707 for more
details. Farther east, a strong low-level jet and related warm
advection preceding the midlevel trough will promote isolated
elevated thunderstorms across the upper MS Valley into the upper
Midwest overnight. Weak instability will preclude severe storms.
...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast...
Isolated thunderstorms will spread/develop eastward along an
west/east-oriented diffuse cold front extending from the central
Gulf Coast into northern FL tonight. This activity will remain north
of the moderately unstable air mass over the Gulf. Across parts of
the eastern and southern FL Peninsula, a few thunderstorms will
continue through around 03Z along lingering outflow boundaries.
While locally strong gusts and small hail are possible, the overall
severe threat appears low.
..Weinman/Worster.. 05/12/2026
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