Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind
gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible this
afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More
sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the
Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.
...TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
digging southeastward across CO. This feature will emerge into the
Plains this morning and track into OK/TX by this afternoon. Large
scale ascent ahead of this trough has led to multiple clusters of
thunderstorms overnight across OK and north TX, reinforcing
cooler/stable air down into north-central TX. While some recovery
of the air mass is expected, the primary surface boundary will
likely extend across north TX by early afternoon. Strong heating to
its south, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid
level lapse rates will yield strongly unstable CAPE (MLCAPE ~2500
J/kg) from the Abilene area south/eastward.
Thunderstorm development will occur first along/north of the primary
boundary and the organizing surface low over west TX. Initial
storms will likely be supercells capable of very large hail and a
few damaging wind gusts. Model solutions are consistent in
developing a large bowing cluster of storms that tracks across
north-central TX through the evening. These storms will pose a risk
of more widespread damaging wind and hail potential across the ENH
risk area. Activity is expected to weaken overnight as it
approaches the TX middle Gulf Coast.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/10/2026
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