Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
...South-central and Southeast Texas...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern
Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates
eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending
eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the
trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the
post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will
develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal
Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is
expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet
will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating
storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This
potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the
middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat
is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late
afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf.
...Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf
Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet
overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will
support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into
tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal
areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far
southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for
isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce
strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late
this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold
pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario
materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TSK3l7
