Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.
...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated
thunderstorm development across this area.
While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.
...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/08/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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