Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today
across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula,
southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.
..Gleason.. 04/07/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TRwKgQ
