Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.
Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/06/2026
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