Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...
CORRECTED FOR CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.
... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...
As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution.
If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.
... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...
Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.
... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.
... Southwest Texas ...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026
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