Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend into the Gulf coast states and southern
Georgia/South Carolina Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional
strong storms are expected across the central Appalachians and
southern Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will pivot across the Great Lakes and Midwest today.
Within southern stream flow, a weak shortwave impulse will migrate
through westerly flow aloft from Texas to the GA/SC coast. This will
result in enhanced westerly flow across the southern U.S. and the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from northern IN southwestward into central TX
this morning. This front will develop southward across TX and
southeastward across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast through the
period. The northern extent of the front will shift east across the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. This surface boundary will be a focus
for strong to severe thunderstorm development during the
afternoon/evening.
...TX to GA/SC Coast...
A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface front,
particularly across TX where dewpoints in the 70s are common.
Heating into the 80s and 90 of this very moist airmass will result
in a corridor of moderate to strong MLCAPE. The surface boundary
will be the main forcing mechanism for convection across TX and
storm coverage may remain isolated. Further east into the Lower MS
Valley/Southeast, a shortwave impulse will provide modest forcing
for ascent in addition to the southeast sagging cold front.
Isolated supercells across central TX will pose a risk for large
hail, with some potential for 2+ inch hail. Uncertainty concerning
storm coverage and capping across TX precludes an upgrade to Sight
risk at this time. Additional storms are expected to develop closer
to the Sabine Valley and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm clusters may congeal into one or more linear segment
and move across MS/AL/GA during the late afternoon into evening
hours. Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
activity.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity...
An upper shortwave trough emanating from the Great Lakes/Midwest
upper trough will overspread the region during the afternoon/evening
in tandem with the eastward advancing cold front. Modest boundary
layer moisture is forecast across the region, with dewpoints
generally in the 50s to near 60 F. Modest heating will result in
weak destabilization (generally 500-750 J/kg or less). Despite weak
instability, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast
soundings. This should aid in at least transient organization of
stronger updrafts with a wind and hail risk. While instability and
moisture will be marginal, 0-1 SRH will approach 150 m2/s2 in
proximity to a weak surface low and a brief tornado could also
occur.
..Leitman/Moore.. 04/29/2026
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