Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.
...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is
anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells
including very large hail potential along with some damaging
wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through
early/mid-evening.
First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress
east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast
Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at
late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development
seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis
and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the
Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the
possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated
severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from
northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the
Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a
surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer
warming.
Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable
airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and
near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is
beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in
mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense
surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple
point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon,
where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong
deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple
intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur
with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable
environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though
low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.
Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and
Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term
details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms
with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this
same region late today, or more so tonight.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/28/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TSGpB9
