Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a potential for large to very large,
tornadoes and severe wind gust will continue this evening into
tonight across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex.
Additional severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the central Plains.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery from east-central Kansas southward into west-central
Oklahoma. At the surface, a moist airmass is located over the
eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex, where
surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. The RAP shows
strong instability across north Texas and southern Oklahoma, with
MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Scattered severe storms are
ongoing near an instability maximum that is near the Red River north
of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The RAP is also showing very
steep mid-level lapse rates over southern Oklahoma and far north
Texas. 700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be in the 7.5 to 8
C/km range. This will be favorable for large to very large hail.
Hailstones of 2 to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the
more intense supercells.
In addition, a low-level jet is analyzed from northeast Texas into
eastern Oklahoma. The low-level jet has not strengthened as much as
was originally forecast, but is still expected to gradually ramp up
over the next few hours. This will increase low-level shear
maintaining a tornado threat. The RAP still increases 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range within a
couple of hours, suggesting that a potential for strong tornadoes
will continue. A wind-damage threat is also expected to be
maintained this evening into the early overnight period, as a severe
convective cluster moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex.
Concerning the placement of the Moderate, it appears that severe
threat coverage will be more limited north of I-40. For this reason,
the northern extent of the Moderate Risk area has been trimmed.
...Central Plains...
Water vapor currently shows a subtle shortwave trough moving into
the mid Missouri Valley and another one moving into the central High
Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass is located from central and
eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, where scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. Across this area at mid-levels, flow is
generally from west to southwest at 30 to 40 knots. This is creating
sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe storms. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated large hail.
Severe wind gusts will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 04/26/2026
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