Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, tornadoes and
wind damage will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains
and Arklatex. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter and
strong tornadoes will be possible.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern
Rockies this morning and into the southern Plains this afternoon. At
the surface, a low will deepen across northwest Texas. Ahead of the
approaching trough, moisture advection will take place in the
southern Plains, as surface dewpoints over Oklahoma increase into
the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to strong
destabilization by afternoon from parts of north Texas into
Oklahoma. An outflow boundary over north Texas will move northward
this afternoon into southern Oklahoma. Low-level convergence will
increase along this boundary in the afternoon. Low-level convergence
will also increase along a front moving into central Oklahoma. These
two zones will be the focus for convective initiation this
afternoon. Severe storms are expected to develop and move
southeastward across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon
and evening.
RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon in far southern Oklahoma
to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex increase MLCAPE into
the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range and have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8
C/km range. This combined with long hodographs and a tendency for
the storms to remain discrete will be very favorable for supercells
with large hail. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter will
be possible with the more intense cores. In addition, a 25 to 30
knot low-level jet will be in place late this afternoon from north
Texas into east-central Oklahoma. This feature will create strong
low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear
will be amplified by the boundary in southern Oklahoma. By early
this evening, forecast sounding near the western edge of the
low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 400
m2/s2 range. This will support a potential for strong tornadoes with
the more robust supercells. Also, a wind-damage threat will develop
with supercells. The wind-damage threat will continue through much
of the evening as a cluster of severe storms moves southeastward
toward the Ark-La-Tex.
...Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern and central
Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
through western and central Kansas into western Oklahoma. To the
east of the front, a well-defined moist axis will be located from
central Oklahoma into east-central Kansas. Along the western edge of
the moist airmass, a north-to-south corridor of low-level
convergence is forecast which will focus convective initiation. As
instability maximizes this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to
develop and move southeastward across much of central and southern
Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings across this area
by late afternoon show moderate instability and 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 40 knot range, which will support a large hail and wind-damage
threat.
...Central and Southwest Texas...
A moist airmass will remain over much of the southern Plains today.
Along the northwestern edge of the moist sector, low-level
convergence will increase along a well-developed dryline. Although
large-scale ascent will remain minimal, isolated storms could
develop late this afternoon to the east of the dryline. Moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support an
isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/25/2026
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