Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex
region.
...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The
primary changes made to the current outlook were to trim severe
probabilities across portions of the OH Valley/Great Lakes, and the
Mid-MS Valley, where either the passage of a surface cold front, or
robust convection, has promoted boundary layer stabilization. More
minor changes involved small adjustments to current severe and
thunder probabilities ahead of storms to account for observations
and the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 04/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/
...Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its
related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast
Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line
may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer
warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing
storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower
Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some
tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this
evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field.
The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should
continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon,
setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential
via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple
point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated
toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and
nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and
steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support
intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a
tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow
boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering
may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection
spreads east-southeastward.
Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west
across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the
southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture
will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
...Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande...
A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the
south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early
evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should
storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of
eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort
Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this
morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio).
Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon.
Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of
near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line
convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to
isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of
negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level
capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent,
upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb)
suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably
stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with
50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively.
Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective
development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to
the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general
vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level
mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity
of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm
development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this
afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with
localized severe-caliber wind gusts.
...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move
northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.
Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning
across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover
remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue
to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front,
supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely
organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move
northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a
weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of
the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk.
...Western Nebraska...
A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early
evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a
mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough
centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong
deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed
boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail.
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