Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...20Z Update...
The TSTM area was removed in eastern NC, where the cold front and
related thunderstorm potential has shifted offshore. The TSTM area
was also trimmed behind a band of eastward-moving thunderstorms
departing the New England coast, and no lightning is expected behind
this activity. Farther south in parts of central FL, isolated
thunderstorms are evolving along the sea breeze focused over the
Treasure Coast. While storm coverage and intensity are expected to
remain isolated/marginal, a warm/unstable PBL and around 35 kt of
midlevel flow could support a strong storm or two capable of locally
strong gusts, though this activity is expected to remain sub-severe.
..Weinman.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough currently approaching Baja California will
provide increasing large-scale forcing for ascent over Mexico and
south/west TX today. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
through the period.
Other isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
frontal band affecting New England and eastern NC, beneath cold air
aloft in the Lower Great Lakes region, and over south FL. In all of
these areas, weak instability and/or limited vertical shear will
preclude a risk of organized severe storms.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TS6pjr
