Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible
across parts of central Texas.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough with elongated leading speed max will sweep
across the Great Lakes and OH Valley during the day and into the
Appalachians by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, moderate westerlies aloft
will persist across TX with the aid of a subtropical jet.
At the surface, a cold front will move across OH and KY through
early afternoon, and into western NY, PA, and WV late in the day.
This front will also extend far southwestward toward the
northwestern Gulf Coast and into far southern TX. Ahead of the
front, a narrow plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will exist as
far north as OH and PA, with more robust moisture into TX with upper
60s F dewpoints.
...Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians...
A remnant line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist
near the cold front this morning as it moves across the OH Valley
and toward the lower Great Lakes. Daytime heating will help
destabilize the air mass ahead of this activity, and storm
rejuvenation is expected after 18Z from near Lake Erie into eastern
KY. These storms will mature in the 21-00Z timeframe, affecting
eastern OH, WV, and into PA and possibly southwest NY.
Substantial southwest flow aloft will help to push these storms
quickly east/northeast across the region, and deep-layer shear may
favor scattered cells initially. Marginal hail will be possible,
along with locally strong gusts, especially as storm mode becomes
linear and peak heating has been achieved. Given the narrow
instability axis, storms should wane after sunset.
...South-Central Texas...
Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected throughout
much of the day as the cold front rapidly undercuts a moist and
unstable air mass. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE parcels rooted in
the 850-700 mb layer, with effective deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt.
Initial activity may develop over central TX during the morning and
through midday, with additional new elevated development translating
southward as the front continually lifts the moist air mass. A few
hail reports at or above 1.00" will be possible.
..Jewell/Moore.. 04/18/2026
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