Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN A
CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for damaging wind gusts could still increase a bit with
developing clusters of storms through mid to late evening across
parts of the Midwest into the southeastern Great Plains, while also
continuing with another cluster of storms spreading across northern
portions of the Allegheny Plateau.
...01Z Update...
Mid-level ridging centered near the south Atlantic Seaboard remains
prominent, but is undergoing some suppression as at least a couple
of short wave troughs migrate around its western through northern
periphery. The most substantive of these waves is forecast to
continue migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through
Wisconsin/Illinois by late tonight, accompanied by a modest
downstream surface frontal wave. A vigorous jet streak associated
with one or two lower amplitude downstream perturbations is forecast
to propagate from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through southern
New England. It appears that mid/upper troughing with embedded
low-amplitude perturbations will linger across parts of the southern
Great Plains.
Peak afternoon destabilization along the dryline, from near its
frontal intersection (roughly near/north of the Greater Kansas City
area) southwestward into the Texas South Plains, is already waning.
However, it appears that at least a narrow corridor of moderate
residual boundary-layer instability in the warm sector to its east
could may maintain vigorous convection and support continuing
upscale convective growth into mid/late evening across parts of
southeastern Oklahoma, western/northern Arkansas, central/eastern
Missouri and central/northern Illinois. As this occurs, largely
coincident with a northeastward propagating 30-40 kt southwesterly
850 mb jet, this may be accompanied by developing areas of
increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few brief
tornadoes, before convection weakens overnight.
..Kerr.. 04/16/2026
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