Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.
...Synopsis...
Surface ridging currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic and
covering much of the eastern CONUS is forecast to shift
northeastward into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow
trends more westerly and surface pressure lowers over the Plains.
Strengthening pressure gradient between the Plains troughing and the
western Atlantic ridge will support moderate southerly low-level
flow and modest moisture advection across the central and southern
Plains. By early tomorrow (Monday), mid 50s dewpoints will likely
extend from south-central OK into the Mid-South, with 60s dewpoints
extending from central TX through the Lower MS Valley.
Despite this increasing low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft
and negligible large-scale ascent will preclude thunderstorm
development. Only thunderstorm chances across the CONUS today will
be across central/southern AZ, south FL, and a small part the
southeast LA Coast. Across south FL a weakening front and associated
low-level convergence will combine with warm and moist conditions to
support isolated thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms are also
possible over the southeast LA coast in the confluent low-level
southeasterly flow rounding the base of the surface ridging.
Predominantly dry thunderstorms are anticipated across
central/southern AZ where strong heating and deep mixing will occur
beneath modest mid-level moisture emanating from the eastern
Pacific. Given the high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates, strong
downbursts are possible. However, limited updraft strength and
persistence should temper the overall severe potential.
..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/29/2026
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