Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast - to
remove 10% thunder probabilities from parts of WV/KY. Isolated
lightning flashes in northwest AR are expected to remain below 10%
coverage.
..Hart.. 03/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East. The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.
In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight. Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont. The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity. Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.
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