Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across
parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible.
...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level
flow over the southern Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a
subtle shortwave trough evident within the flow over far northwest
Illinois. At the surface, a cold front is located from central
Illinois east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near the front, extending
northward into the cooler air about 150 statute miles. The best
environment currently appears to be located from far eastern Indiana
eastward to east of Columbus, Ohio, where RAP analysis shows a
west-to-east axis of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. RAP
forecast soundings near this axis of instability have 0-6 km shear
in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
Cells are currently discrete within this environment, which will
continue to favor supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter appear likely with the more intense
supercells. In addition, low-level lapse rates are also steep, which
will support a wind-damage threat. A few gusts above 70 knots will
be possible. Also, forecast soundings within this unstable airmass
have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 450 m2/s2 range,
suggesting that a tornado threat will continue with the more intense
supercells. The severe threat will likely be maximized within this
corridor over the next few hours...see MCD 293. The severe threat
should expand eastward across far eastern Ohio and into western
Pennsylvania.
Further west into parts of Indiana and Illinois, the strongest
storms are currently located near and to the east of Indianapolis.
Although the storms are not as strong westward into central and
northern Illinois, convective intensity is expected to increase as
the shortwave trough moves eastward across the state, along with the
exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered severe storms are expected
to develop over the next couple of hours, and a cluster or line
could become organized...see MCD 294. Isolated severe storms will
also be possible further west into parts of Missouri and far eastern
Kansas later this evening.
..Broyles.. 03/27/2026
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